SELF EXPLANATORY !!
Saturday, January 29, 2011
OptionFlows
PLs check out the Call Flows (green bottom left) how the led the LOW in Prices by 4-6 weeks....
Gold has seen some solid selling and could bottom here.
Banks need more downside action to be done.
Exhaustion Watch: BEARISH FLIP......
....we need more confirmation, but it looks like to have started.
Golden5: Breadth
The bears have to produce a higher NewLows20 & Selling Pressure reading this time after having seen 3 consecutive lower readings.
If the Bears blow it we will have a Monster Buy Signal. On the other side if they can break the red trendlines then we have confirmation of a change in character.
Let's where Mr. Market takes us....
A crazy week in Gold....allowing for both scenarios
Gold had broken the key trendline , bounced back and now might have failed the break down. Don't get me wrong if Mr. Market confirms the upside then expect some fireworks.
Bear in mind that from failed moves come fast moves!!
Golden5: Sentiment
ISE & CBOE data allow for more downside before reaching a support level.
Pls find our newest addition the VIX Fair Value which compares Vola prices with actual Vola. We have backtested this indicator and found that the success ratio for a profitable trade withing 60trading days (3 Months) is around 85%.This is somewhat similar to the success ratio of the above ISE & CBOE Sentiment gages.
The recent Spike is the highest one in 20yrs, so let's see what happens over the 3 Months.
Our workhorses the 2 VIX_OSCs are still hinting at more downside.
Our workhorses the 2 VIX_OSCs are still hinting at more downside.
Either it is different this time or better get your stops tightened!
Sunday, January 23, 2011
ANANOMY of a TOP
Below you can beatifully observe the sequential nature of a Top. A Top needs to mature, it takes time to fully develop. It took over a month to have all characteristics in place.
As Tom DeMark said on Bloomberg this week, this could be sth. meaningful.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
OptionFlow update
Gold looks done with the correction
Exuberance was dominant...
The key driver like ...GS
GOOG
AAPL
...all look prone for the some decompression....
GOOG
AAPL
...all look prone for the some decompression....MOMO & VOLUME Update
The Institutional Portfolio expects more downside
Gold looks almost done...
The Bullfunds could see more downside
...as Tech
...as the Bank
Euro melted up but looks prone to break...
2+ Std. Deviations melt up paired with a neg Div smells like exhausted short squeeze.
(the 4th attempt to break out succeeded, but can it hold ....?)
What are the leaders doing.....they fail
Apple: Failed upside breakout followed by a break down !!
Freeport: Break down
Goldman: Failed upside breakout followed by a break down !!
Thursday, January 20, 2011
there will be no posts this weekend....
....I will travelling....
- Watch 1320-1290 on Gold
- Watch 1.34 on the Euro
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Euro fails the 4th Test of the 1.34 area
This is not a bullish sign for the EURO and all correlated Asset Classes!!
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Riding a bike up the hill through dense fog...
We have to think in terms of gravity which means....picture Ben riding up the hill on his bike through a dense fog. He has no idea where the top is and keeps pedaling, trying to get higher and higher (....avoiding the bad weather down in the village...). At some point he will have reached the top and will accelerate down. There is nothing he can do!! (it's just the nature of speculative manias, no matter whether they are artificially induced or not).
This means you don't need a catalyst just time to reach that point.
Listen to Bob Hoye to get more on this idea
The more interesting question revolves around the concept of a safe haven when the day arrives. Will it be GOLD or the US$ ?
Mr. Market will tell.
...be patient Jason
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Thoughts of a schizophrenic Deflationist
I'm a schizophrenic Deflationist who believes in the Deflationary Ideas of a David Rosenberg and Gary Shilling and holds a sizable physical Gold and Silver position. (..will add on Monay...)
Why? How ?....because I believe both scenaries could be possible in a world where we have the separation btw. the 'have and have not's'. I'm imaging a world where deflationtionary forces from housing in the US or from Energy & Food Inflation in China, US, Europe will hit the have 'have not's', where they will also struggle with wage arbitrage into the Emerging Markets and Unemployment in the western world. This is a world where Ben Bernanke tries to prop up the Banks, HedgeFunds and the global Stock Markets, but he seems to have a date with destiny. Ben works hard to keep up the Illusion that the Global leaders demand from him and his buddy Trichet. The degree of exuberance hints at a brutal date!
Why?...because the Playas have made lots of money, the optionbooks are full of wealth but each incremental Dollar of new return comes with an increasingly higher risk factor. The average investor has left the market (see flow posts of today), breadth is deteriorating and it seems like we are reaching irrational exuberance. Maybe this can go for another round, maybe not, BUT GRAVITY IS OUT THERE BEN!!
In a market with lacking liquidity (look at the 5 big figure move in the EURO last week!!), 'the haves' have hedged or are in cash or waiting for corrections in Gold to follow the Chinese, the Indians and half of Switzerland and the Middle East.
This is why I'm a schizophrenic Deflationists.
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