Exhaustion Watch

Last week we saw a transition shaping up which continues this week. Which looks at first sight chaotic needs to be seen in a temporal context, in other words you need to see it as a flow.

in Col 1 I highlighted the potential flip candidates resulting from our flow analysis from col 3+4 as last week. Here we have mature correlations that are about ( like the DIA) or have just flipped (like XLF in col 4).

Col2 is marked by exhaustion readings.

Col8 still shows that most of the trends have not reversed (but could soon).

Col 12-15 show some high probability turning candidates like GLD, TLT, XLF (!!). What will happen to the 'Flight to quality trade' ?

Col 18 & 19 also stress the journey aspect where we are long term negative and still med term positive

If you need a case study to learn just look at GLD because there you have it all....

Col3: mature

Col6: Overbought

Col7: cycle extended

Col9: neg Div!!

Col11: Exhaustion

Col12-15: turn has a high probability

Col16 &19: med & long term positive

Conclusion:

The next weeks will bring more clarity whether we will fall back into the BULL mode or whether the BEAR can manifest himself.

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Explanantions:

Column #

1. Name
2. Ticker
3. large Trader/ Price Correlation
4. large Trader/ Price Correlation days
5. 
   
6. Bollinger Band (50d, 2 STD) Position between 0-1
7. relative Time Analysis of the SMA5 to the SMA50
8. Active Boundaries TREND (MOMO)
9. Divergences Act. Boundaries
10. Candle Signals
11. Exhaustion
12. potential Turning Days
13. weighting
14. potential Turning Days
15. weighting
16. last weekly pivot
17. last short term breakout
18. last med. term break out
19. last monthly pivots