Saturday, February 5, 2011

OptionFlows paint mixed picture

We added some new analytics to the OptionFlow analysis and added a plain interpretation next to each graph below. As a picture says more then a 1000 words we decided to put the explanantions into this sketch. The sketch shows SMILE-curves that represent the cummulative intrinsic values of the entire option chain at a particular price.

Example (see in grey on the left):
price goes down...
Put option get into the money (ITM)...
....if you have a wide smile at some point in time then the value of your options is shown on the red smile curve
....if let's say at another time the smile is narrower like the grey one, then the same price drop will lead to a much higher gain.

==> Narrow SMILEs (low RGW values- see in green on the bottom right) are prone to kick start stronger moves

additionally you will find on the bottom right our PO OSC and PR Indicator which both show where the Marketprice (VWAP) trades in relation to the OFEP. High PO & PR redaings indicate the the Call holders dominate the tape and they they have pushed their options into the money (ITM).

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The Institutional Portfolio looks still being in a Topping Pattern:
Gold feels like getting ready for constructive action:
BUT!! Tech could take another upswing here.
Bottom line:
We could see another upswing maybe into the Feb 20's before seeing some more serious correction. Some of the other indicators hint at some earlier action so let's see what Mr. Market giveth.....
Another interpretation would see the Market drop into the FEB 20s time window...

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