Medium term outlook for the SPYDER looks gloomy

The price moves within a corrective Pattern, within a neg. Trend. A retest of the top seems imminent...but then what....a breakout or breakdown out of the Pattern ?????

Bonds are getting exhausted.....

MOMO's view on 20yr TSY and Corp Bonds is consistent: BEARISH

 And the TREND looks the same .....and this was already on Thursday

(all charts are  EOD THURSDAY)

More upside conceivable....

Silver Low and Agg high in sight ?

Our TimeCycles model shows some interesting forecasts.....

A warning sign?

Our Alternative VixOSC looks overbought in the cummulative version.... 

....and in the plain version....

on the other side the default VixOSC still defends the bullish (positive) Zone. We are alterted by the muted market moves over the last days that were accompanied by more material moves in the VIX, which has affeceted our indicators (Divergence).

One of our best Horses is still long OIL

The Public Opinion allows for more upside in OIL.

(source: http://www.sentimentrader.com)

The Seasonals for Crude are good up to September.

(source: http://www.sentimentrader.com)

Our  correlation/ Risk ON- Trading Model is bullish supported bei the VixOSC and our Trend Indicator.

The Heart of the rally: THE EURO BOUNCE

The we should expect vola from the premium structure in the FXE options.

 Our Trend Analysis supports the Vola view with an upside bias.

 Our TimeCycles model provides us with a timeframe of 1 month.

The Public Opinion view hints at a neg. Euro Sentiment in biblical prportions, a.k.a. 'concentrated short positions' that cry for a short covering rally as started on Thursday (chart is from Tuesday).

A monthlong Euro rally will support a broader rally in the entire RISK TRADE from Equities, Gold to rising yield with falling credit spreads.

Sentiment Indicators see more upside ahead

We might see some short term pause....

...but the intermediate outlook seems promising

Vix FairValue:

VixOsc:

ISE & CBOE Equity Options:

....but be careful because the intermediate time window might only last more than a couple of days, maybe 1-2 weeks. Anything beyond that is out of our scope....

More Upside ?

Gold Sentiment as of Tuesday looks promising

Weekly Trend and Cycles outlook

More Vola will come our way in Materials...

...the Euro...

...whereby the Vola could be of the benign kind in a bullish way, now that many Asset classes have re-entered or defended the Bull..

 ....the final timing on the bullish campaign (we still call it just a BOUNCE) seems uncertain, but a couple of weeks or even 1-2 months are in the cards.

 Remember our early Canary who alerted us of the coming tidal shift?

When we look at the leveraged Bulls the picture looks similar...

Update on OIL:

 ......but there is also a chance that the Bounce gets cut short which we don't view as our base case as of know.

We promised you a volatile week with an upside bias last week and what a week we got !

The next phase should be continuation of this in the end of July +/-.

(This will be out last post before our summer break. We will return in Ausgust. Enjoy the Summer!!)

ISE and CBOE cry 'BOUNCE'

This is NOT a healthy market !!

The Teck Larg Cap Liquidity Index shows deterioration and indicates a Market that bounces from extreme to extreme due to lacking liquidity. This is a clear WARNING sign that the current bounce might not morph into a new BULL.....

Upside Bias confirmed

Crude Explosion

On June 18 we alerted you that the stars were aligning for a turn around in crude. Pls see in the pic how it all came together. Crude shot up nearly 10% yesterday!

Still on a short term bullish path

A perfect Year so far for the Bradley model !!

The Bradley model has done a pristine job in calling the market in 2012. As it stands right now the Bradley had called for the Summer rally with a Top in late july. 

Given that the rally came 1.5 weeks early we should give the model some wiggle room.

Which leads to the $6MM question:

1. Has the summer rally already seen the top ...or
2. will we see another 4 week spasm to the upside before really falling apart ?

A turbulent week with a upside bias ahead?

The Euro is getting ready for some Vola. Bear mind mind that we have not seen the final top in the RRM Indicator, meaning we only know it will com soon but not when...

 The TimeCycles paint an optimistic picture for the risk trade....

 ...The gold miners might need another retest but seem on path to a more sustained rally....

 ....against the backdrop of Gold...

 ....the SEMIs also want to see another week of sun....

 ...Oil being the big looser the last weeks is getting ready for a fight back against the bears...

 ...which is in line with what we see with the Materials sector.

A muddy picture out there painting some rally in the risk trade which probably will not be sustainable with a safehaven like Gold entereing into the next bull phase.....the smell of moneyprinting is in the air and plenty of bail out attempts!

Weekly Trend update: The Bounce could continue

The Euro could see some upside Momentum......but should see it fast...

 Gold is still positive...

 Small Caps seem to have the wind in their back....

 ....but Silver looks precarious..

 ...while OIL looks ready to recoup some of the losses.

All in all we could see some further choppy actio with an upside bias.