Time is up

The bears have their moment now and should really take this chance because otherwise we could see some quick retest of the 1200-1225 area which is 50-75 points away......

SUSI WEEKLY UPDATE & Exhaustion Watch

Susi paints an across the board bullish picture !

ExhaustionWatch confirms SUSI, but shows a good degree of exhaustion....

The Trend is your friend until it ends and as of now we are on bullish. It looks tired and we have a fair of amount of evidence (Gartleys, FibTime, Oversold/bought readings etc. ) hinting at a flip, but Mr. Market has to call the shots.

Monday/Tuesday should give us a good indication.

Euro: Remember the Gartley ?

We've reached the first group of Target-Zones. If we move further from here we also enter into a more bullish RSI - Zone above 60-65 which would be a change of character.

If we flip here then we would have seen a textbook - all within the boundaries of the Zones - relief move from a massive Exhaustion (RSI of 18 on the weekly !).

This is a crucial crossroads!

Golden 5: Sentiment, Golden5: Breadth: UPDATE

Sentiment looks ripe to declare the last move a fake out....

Breadth looks vulnerable..

Liquidity is still bad.....

Pattern Cluster in the SPYDER

This looks like perfect Harmony.

Timing Ideas

The Spyder aims at the end of the months after nicely following our last call around Sep. 19.

Gold looks interesting from a FibTime perspective in a way that we don't see a good cluster before november with the big one in jan 2011.
TLT (20 yr Treasuries) have their next cluster around oct. 16.

I'm travelling...

There will be no updates next weekend. Stay save.

The news this morning on Basel III transition periods feels like desparation, but make no mistake, this is the most manipulated market in history and they can throw many more curveballs if they want....

But GRAVITY still exists, it just takes more energy to temporarily defy it...but this can NOT go on for good.

FibTime in charts

SUSI WEEKLY UPDATE

After a vertical bounce most shortterm models are on buy. The question is how long Mr. Market can sustain this neckbreaking pace which has all the characteristics of a short-covering move. We - the friends of SUSI- believe that this is simply a counterbounce in a bigger bear.

Mr. Market in the end has to decide , don't forget we are entering into the bearish seasonality window.

FibTime: looks muddled...with no clear call

The Spyder has 2 dates Sep19 & 27 and it's hard to call whether we are talking tops or bottoms....

...the same with Gold (Sep 15 & 23)

Golden5: Sentiment

The Sentiment picture looks overbought and should limit the move to the upside from here.

Golden5: Breadth

Breadth needs to flip soon to the bearish side again or will have a bullish change of tone.

You read so much about the 90% days, so I've built a Liquidity Index around this idea (green). The resulting picture is not bullish. It seems like we are sitting on a Vulcano ready to erupt.

I also look at the historic context which clearly shows how ETFs and Robots have changed the world forever. The Market now moves much more in sync than in the past which cleary is negative in terms of stability!

Exhaustion Watch: OVERBOUGHT

Q and A, FibTime

If some of you REFLECTIONISTAS have any questions, pls do not hestitate to leave your email address and question in the comments section and I'm happy to respond as far as time allows....

One question was recently asked about the methodology behind our FibTime algorithm. Without going into too much detail I can certainly share some of the concepts behind it.

1. we define pivots (highs & lows) and weight them in a Tom DeMark sense by looking how many days they took to develop and held. Example a '5' weighted Pivot took in min. 5 days to develop and held at least 5 days. (in order to keep it simple I define classes like 5's, 8's, 13's etc).
2. take a pair of pivots, weight them by their average individual weight and count the days btw. pivots
3. calc. the basic Fib-ratios like 61.8%, 100%, 138%, 162% and add these calculated days to the last pivot (also look at Robert Miner's books here). I take calendar days for the ease of calculation.
4. repeat for a finite number of pivots and cluster (and smooth). Don't go too far back, don't miss the big ones.

Yep, that's the secret sauce ....

Historic Rhymes & Long term Stock Valuations

Pls find in the ADDITIONAL INFO section on the right side of the blog more Historical Context links/ charts to assess the current environment.

REAL ECONOMY

We just added to links (see ADDITIONAL INFO on the right side of the blog)

REAL ECONOMY: LEADING INDICATORS

Whenever this Indicator was at -10% we had a 100% chance of a Recession

REAL ECONOMY: Consumer-Metrics-Growth-Index

This new Indicator leads the GDP and develops a nice track record

h/t http://dshort.com/

FibTime TLT aligns with SPY....

Another flight into treasuries after Labor Day.....?

Exhaustion Watch and SUSI WEEKLY UPDATE

Susi has called the bounce but provides no further info from here.

The exhaustion watch:

SPYDER Flow analysis: "an unhealthy market"

GOLD Flow analysis: "a healthy market"

Bottom line:

next week offers:

1. FibTime Cluster in the SPYDER and the TLT
2. Overbought market
3. unhealthy market with a lot's of 90% days (google that if you like) and weak flow
4. a Gold market that will either exhaust of explode upwards

Golden5: Breadth: still bearish

Let's see how it develops....

Golden5: Sentiment: becoming Overbought

The positions of the VIX_OSC should limit the move to the upside. If we can break back into negative territory then things might get more interesting for the BEARS.

Timing Idea for the Spyder

Our FibTime stays consistent. Last week we indicated the chance for a bounce that could run into Sep5/6. This week's Fibtime run now goes for Sep 6 which is the upcoming monday as a potential exhaustion point for this extreme one sided explosion of hope.

IWM, QQQQ are saying the same. Gold is also unchanged for a run into mid September.