Every day over the last week has been an Extreme which indicates a deteriorating liquidity in the market.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Monday, February 25, 2013
The key VixOsc is entering the Bear Zone
Saturday, February 23, 2013
A new chapter to our 'Rolling Top theme'
The market character seems to have changed las week. Our Market model went short on Thursday, but doesn't seem completely convinced yet.
Anomalies where you look. Take for example our next chart, that has not accounted for a single OptionFlowExtreme in nearly a year which in itsself is an extreme.
Why we see more downside risk for the EURO
Our TREND model which is an aggregation of a host of MOMO, FLOW and Option Indicators has a fairly good track record and call for more downside.
The Euxhaustion gage we use (also a incredient into our secret TREND 'sauce') has a 7 out of 7 bet out against the EURO. Thus we espect a correction that will fullfill time and / or price objectives before we can change the outlook.
MOM(O)entum is speaking a similar language. We see a short-term streched move with plenty of downside potential in the medium-term.
The Euro has played a pivotal role in the global Risk Trade , so an adverse fate will also bode ill for the rest of the trade.....
Is this the final exhaustion in Gold we need for the next leg up ?
Sentiment and the weekly technical assessment call for a medium term low in the making. Therefore we should expect a low within 0-2month.
Pls also observe the Love-Hate realtionship Gold has with the Equity market where it likes to tag along for the bull leg in equities and then (as 'safehaven') during the correction Gold tends to run alone.
The Cycle chart actually confirms the technical findings. We could see a monthlong rally followed by another test of the bottom before we really continue flying again.
The next charts gives further evidence that the Gold market is OVERSOLD and should rally soon. But be careful, 'rally soon' would also allow for another exhaustive move to the downside before the rally!
Bottom line:
- long & medium term bullish
- ...waiting for short term confirmation that the bottom is in
Friday, February 22, 2013
Euro is targeting 1.26 and 1.20
This should jive a correction in the Risk Trade into the end of Q1.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Friday, February 15, 2013
Quick Thoughts for this weekend
1) Gold is bottoming in Dollars and in Euros
Don't get blinded by the Noise !
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Bull Case for a Rally in Treasuries
......which should be a safehaven Rally.....which contradicts the 'THEME of the DAY' of the 'GREAT ROTATION'....
Options, MOMO, FLOW, TREND, EXHAUTION they all sing the same song. Look for yourself....
Options, MOMO, FLOW, TREND, EXHAUTION they all sing the same song. Look for yourself....
Saturday, February 9, 2013
Watch Fixed Income leaving the risk trade
The health of the risk trade hinges on a very thin thread....
Top in progress
The model is still cautious...
...and Seniment is overbought.
Watch the FX markets for clues on the Risk trade
The EURUSD dropped back below a key Fib-Level and could target the next downside zone.
The Weekly EURYEN paints a similar picture. The Bull move stopped at a resistance level and should we see downside confirmation the action could get explosive.
If the Euro can NOT be pushed up again (by the global Centralbanks) then a stronger Dollar and Yen does bode ill for the Risk Trade bulls for the next months.
Monday, February 4, 2013
Can the VixOsc turn to the Bear-Side?
We wrote a lot about this potential Blow-Out scenario and the high degree of correlation in this 'ONE' market. The FX market took the lead and the herd followed. Let's see how far they want to go?
Sunday, February 3, 2013
JO-JO in Gold this week means what?
The TREND indicator dived because of a flip in the EXHAUSTION Indicator.....
We are in a bottoming process !
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Some bonus charts to underline our blow out theme...
Euro flight to the moon, pt.1
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