Friday, December 28, 2012

Why we started developping our 'MARKET COMPASS' 4 yrs. ago....

I made the argument that we have to let Mr. Market tell us when it is time to flip. In my response to Jason's comments I tried to show that Mr. Markets enjoys the path of max. pain for most participants.


When we look at the Market since that discussion we notice that Mr. Market went on for nealy 2 more weeks and approx. 300 points in the Dow and even now we still might need more confirmation to be assured that a tradable correction has begun.

This is the reason why we began to work on the concept of a flow oriented 'MARKET COMPASS', which is still far from perfect, which still needs more model history to draw from, but which keeps us focussed just on the 'FACT', namely the true money flow.

Our Model for instance tries to isolate data series that are more susceptible to be pushed around by the ALGOS, meaning the have the liquidity in the cash and options to act as reasonable trading vehicle. Maybe our sub-universe is not perfect, but clearly has some solid leadership material.

We have the Banks:
MS,BAC, JPM

FX:
EURO, AUSSIE

Metals/ Materials/ Commodities:
SLV, XOM, NEM

Tech:
AAPL, SMH

Energie:
XOM

Healthcare:
AMGN, JNJ

Small Caps:
IWM

Diversified Ind.:
GE

China:
FXI

Why those ? I don't know, but those show the most consitency with the FLOW+MOMO => TREND approach and surprisingly produce a solid Trend-Signal to trade the Market (SPY).


(The SPYder interestingly enough has so much lead time, that it is hard to confidently trade the swings...)

HAVE A GREAT 2013!
yours
HistoryRhymes



 

Watch the Euro.....is this the end of the insane Year end window dressing of some european bank ?


ISE and CBOE promise great showdown

Higher Lows and and Lower Highs promise some amazing action in the foreseeable future.....because only one side can prevail....
 


Sunday, December 23, 2012

Do NOT expect too much from Santa after X-Mas....

Could Mr. Market establish a Bear Trend...?
 
 The higher yielding model wants to go flat...
 ....whereby the risk averse only wnats to reduce the longs.....
SUSI graphs updated.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Correlation Spike Analysis

One of our newer ways to look at correlations in an ALGO driven market is our Correlation Spike Analysis,where we measure the density of correlation spikes (spikes that fullfill a predefined structure). The basic idea is simple that in a healthy trend you see the leading stocks moving first, pulling more and more stocks into the trend.
Our chart would show this by moving up beyond the kick off line towards the Initial Thrust Line.
 
A healthy trend wants to reach the Inital Thrust Line. Once reached the Indicator tapers off meaning that the trend breadth is deteriorating, while the market is still moving up. This phase usually takes time, normally more then the kick off and initial thrust phase.
 
Occasionally the Thrust goes beyond the Initial Thrust Level which leads to exhaustion moves, normally seen at bottoms. 
 
 


Looking at the Santa Rally we noticed that we never reached the Initial Thrust Line, which indicated that the rally was weak or in other words that the rally was not suppoted by sufficient Breadth.
So either we see another thrust towards the Initial Thrust Line or a correction, which has a higher probability.
 
We will post regular updates in our SUSI Graphs link. 

December hits in Gold are quite normal and temporary


Bear Raids normally start in early December and run for abouta month and pull the metal 3%, 6% or 10% down.


Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Death of Santa: Top in the Euro?


A failed Heah and Shoulders would be the perfect topping formation for the Santa Rally.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Santa's struggles

Pls find a convoluted picture of the Risk Trade as we observe it at this stage with lots of contradictions....
 
 
Next we looked at our most reliable Trend models:
 
 
 
 Head Fake in the Euro ?




Saturday, December 8, 2012

Jason I don't agree

WE had a good cooment from Jason and it raises the important question of timesframes, Thus I wanted to share my response with a wider audience. I have also added some additional charts to relay my argument.....
 
 
 
Have been an ardent follower for over 2+ years now. However this is the very first time we have a contradiction. :-) I see a massive crash coming to the tune of nearly 150-200 points on the S&P. Upside, may be a few points, but downside risk is way too high right now.
Any ideas on that side of the trade?
Also, i noticed you have stopped covering Bradley dates/waves. That too is indicative of a downtick and then massive rally.

Thots?

Jason_70
ReplyDelete





  1. I share your view, but the facts are not there yet. My objective is to assess Mr. Market without a bias and at this stage I see the cyclical bull in the longer term Bear is mature and once it has peaked we will see some more dramatic downside. This leaves us with the question whether X-Mas is the time for the peak or the time for another try before the good will end. At this stage I believe that we are not there yet, we are very close, but have to be patient.

    Bradley has shown some amamzing correlations to the market action, but at some point in time it has just stopped. I find it hard to use a tool that has lost its touch.
    This is exactly why I love my VixOsc and TREND indicator so much because they are exclusively based on peoples real trading positions - no bias! Do I struggle to make sense of some the finding in a fundamental kind of way? All the time! I have accepted that the ALGOS and the Centralbanks control/rig the game.


    Give Santa the benefit of the doubt for another week or weeks, let him enjoy the coming fiscal cliff rally and look out for what happens next.

 
===============
The following Charts show that the market is not cheap anymore and probably looks for a final run up before the fall.
 
 
ISE/CBOE:

 Insiders:
 
 
RISK TRADE:

 

Santa needs AAPL !!

To be clear: Apple is still the key leading stock in this markets. There will be no convincing season of love and happiness without the apple....


Friday, December 7, 2012

Santa keeps giving




 
...when future VIX expectations are lower then the outlook is rosier....


Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Gold Fake Out ?

Gold's hourly Chart shows that Gold is trying to gain back control of the uptrend. We should know the outcome soon....
 

VixOsc tests the boundaries of the Santa Rally


(...I'm back and getting things back up and running)