....has someone forgot to tell our lead dog that Benny Bernanke has a third mandate, namely to inflate assets to pretend that all is great....
Posting will be light this weekend, but check earlier posts that all hint at some key pivot date around the end of april or the beginning of may....
Listen to this exceptional interview which givesba great summary of the state of the markets.
Guest: Satyajit Das explains what is going on with the EuroZone crisis as well as how governments around the world continue to kick the can down the road. Bernanke may be signaling an end to the ultra-easy monetary policy and some thoughts on silver. Also, earnings season is part of this episode along with what to watch for in the coming weeks.
Please read this article on a parabolic rise in silver and the rising probabilities of a 20% 2 day crash, if the exchange does not start to initiate a controlled break........
Is it already to late?
This will be a very interesting week. Pls be invited to listen to this exceptional audio interview.
Summary
Guest: Satyajit Das explains what is going on with the EuroZone crisis as well as how governments around the world continue to kick the can down the road. Bernanke may be signaling an end to the ultra-easy monetary policy and some thoughts on silver. Also, earnings season is part of this episode along with what to watch for in the coming weeks.
The High Yield market looks heated with an historic reading on the weekly EXH and a neg. Div on the daily EXH. This hints at some risk for the RISK ASSET classes.
Make no mistake, the charts above allude to DEFLATION with lower yields and falling Asset Markets.
The Euro resembles the DXY (Dollar INDEX) chart and looks ready to roll over. If the Weekly neg Div. fails (big red decending line in the Weekly EXH chart) then we should expect some temporary acceleration of the Dollar devaluation !!! The Base Case expects the neg. Div. to hold entailing some EURO weakness.
The AUSSIE as the ultimate Commodity FX seems also ready to roll over, which bodes ill for the Commodtiy complex.
The above confirms our statement that all Markets are ticking to the same tune and this ticking has accelerated like a bomb trigger......
The Exhaustion Picture tells exactly the same story. It also shows how a trend can accelerate when a good set up fails....
The TimeCycles also seem in sync with the Price chart and hint at end of April +/- 1 week or 2.
The GSR acts as reliable indicator on speculation and now it is red hot at decade extremes. We should pay attention.
We ran 2 different independent TimeCycles models ( which show that we dealing here with probabilities ONLY, just some indicator that is supposed to beat the rolling of a dice...) and both seem to hint at the possibility of a turning point coming.
The key message today is that all markets are completely aligned with the Dollar like Equities, Commodities etc. The degree of positive correlation is a systematic sign of the lack of REAL liquidity in the Market. When this Market dives there will be NO diversification, just a black hole. This is the biggest fear of the Centralbanks and this is the reason why they fight the tide. The only problem the have is that the more speculative the market became the stronger the tide turned they try to hold back. 
Silver has noe reached the an extreme Exhaustion level which we see just a few times in a decade!!! Normal exhaustions lead to tops or bottoms within 20-30 days and the counter already stands on 15. We are so overheated that we should expect extreme vola any day !!
Compare this to Gold and we have a similar story.
Our Timing model also seems to indicate a looming PIVOT.
Also look at the broader Commodities Universe and you will fine a high risk set up that COULD lead to a cyclical TOP across all risk classes !! (Notice that the counter has already reached a potential target !!)
When the DOllAR rises it will lead to corrections of different degrees in various asset classes.
MOMO and Flows are negative, plain and simple.
...but whether the correction starts now or whether we will see another re-test of the high (see cycles chart in top right) is unclear.
Option pictures are muddy right after the OPEX, given the amount of active market making we have experinced in the last week.
...as does SILVER
Some Playas have already started to take money off the table (see Flow Momo).
Timing, MOMO seem aligning .....
...but be careful, because the high Flows in Putoptions could ignite another shortsqueeze before it's over.
The longer term Equity option charts don't tell a clear story...
DOLLAR or SILVER are differnt coin of the same story. Silver could falter in the not too far out future.
And don't forget OIL which is also linked to the Dollar story.
