The Option 'PLAYAS' are getting in position.

Exhaustion & Hedgefund Watch

The Hedgies have started to tip their toes into the bear waters...

...while taking some profits off the table...

Our Exhaustion Watch reiterates that we are...

Oversold and tired after the promised SANTA rally... we promised you....

Golden5: Breadth is nicely topping

Lower Lows for the Institutional Portfolio...

...and the same for the TECH group.

"TOPS ARE PROCESSES NOT DATAPOINTS!!!"

Golden5: Sentiment EXTREMES

Santa was in a good mood but will need some reset. Looks at some of those Sentiment Extremes, be it our proprietary VIX_OSC, ISE Call Put ratios or the CBOE data.

We just had the most excessive bullishness in years!!

The platinum trade.

Following ISE extreme Signal (see current extreme here) has been one of the best trades since 2005.

Above we show what have been the optimal Return on Investments had you been followed the ISE Extremes exceeding a Threshold of 0.1 (note the current one is 0.29). On the bull side you had safe bets earning 10%-20% whereby the bearside was more volatile with trades earning 7%-25% within the next 40 trading days.

(NO bad trades in 4 years!! <=> Bears ahoi!!)

I leave you here for the next weeks and wish you a merry x-Mas!!

MOMO, VOLUME, Sentiment review by Sector

Tech is showing a neg Div in the sentiment gage and hints at a rally that could run into year end.

Tech MoneyFlow looks bad and MOMO has also developped a neg Div!.
Banks approach exuberance in Sentiment land and a FibCluster around X-Mas. See also that there is no put flows anymore = bears are given up...
Momo & Money Flow are OVERBOUGHT.
Our key Institutional Hlgds portfolio shows neg Divs as far as the eye can see and an X-MAS FibCluster.

Prec. Metals seem to need more time to correct.
neg Divs!!

Golden5: Breadth

the Breadth picture is still showing lower highs for the "green" NewHigh20s and the Buying Pressure. The Cum. Curve looks flat. All in all the assessment is neutral.

the Bond Vigilantes are sending a signal....

Corporate Bonds and Treasuries getting hammered.

pos. DIV hints at countermove.

ISE & CBOT confirm the extreme bullishness

Santa seems to have almost run his course....

Sentiment is in HIGH RISK Land!!

The neg. Div is further progessing, which means we are still topping...

Also look at these other key sentiment gages..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rydex-nasdaq-100-bullbear-ratio-highest-dot-com-collapse?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/12/10_Investors_Intelligence_-_Important_Bull_Bear_Chart_Watch_Out!.html

MOMO & FLOWS & Sentiment II

Tech looks vulnerable.

...and overbought in OptionLand.
Same is valid for the Banks

MOMO & FLOWS & SENTIMENT

The Institutional Portfolio is not out of the woods...

X-Mas time for Mr. Market ??
Mixed Picture in Prec. Metals.
with a neg. bias on the sentiment side.

Exhaustion Watch: the correction that doesn't want to happen...!

Fact is that the Market is ripe and overdue for a break. Fact is also that Ben and the POMO crew is fighting the hack against this.

We believe in gravity here. The more you stretch the rubberband the harder the reaction....stay tuned and watch.

Golden5: Breadth update

Breadth is still neutral with (a) still deteriorating upward breadth but (b) strengthening..

Watch Liquidity getting worse again....

Sentiment update: The Rubber band is stretching

Our VIX_OSC Indicators show a Topping Process with a more complex negative Divergence....

ISE look like a topping Process!!

CBOT also does not look like a bottom !

Bad employment data, weak Dollar and strong Equity Markets indicate a purely technical Market.

It all looks like a looming explosion to the downside or upside....

SPX has to decide whether to follow the bullish Seasonality....