Is Morgan Stanley the canary in the coalmine

Here at 'Reflections' we always look for extremes & skews in the Market. WE came across Morgan Stanley where the 'short condor' options strategy (long call spread & long put spread) seems to indicate that we have reached some kind of extreme, where the market  is pricing in some nearterm spike in volatility in MS. 'Vola has no face' so we don't know the direction yet.
When we compare this with the last 3x times we get some idea that this could evolve into something tradeable.

MS does NOT happen in a vacuum at times of perfect correlations, so if MS moves so will the Market....

Triple Chance to see an interim LOW in the EURO over the next couple of days !

Euro 1.30 or DOOM ?

The Bounce has arrived.... but can it stick?

Greenshoots for a temporary bounce ?

Mr. Market got a beating and refused to bounce which are clear traits of a bear.

 ...but there is some hope for a relief ,....like in the EURO

 ....also bear in mind that at some point for some period GOLD will become the safehaven which results in a later topping in GOLD relative to the risk trade. This period seem to have started last thursday ! It could be a wild ride in the Prec. Metals for some months !

 The fact that the monthly DeMark Sequentials are falling  also supports the notion of no immediate disappearance of the bear.

Even a BEAR needs a break......

What do you call a market that refuses to bounce...right .... A BEAR! 

...but even a bear needs to rest some time to retest his ambition.

A scary picture

The Bradley Model seems to have a pristine view on this year's market. Even more amazing is the fact that the model calls for a downdraft into the Greek re-election.
According to the model June-July will offer the last chance to get make some money on the long side.  

We are getting to fairly oversold levels....some interim bounce is to be expexted

EURO in the final exhaustive Move ?

Is the Euro the canary in the coalmine ? Some OptionPlayers are getting in position to play a bounce, while retesting important levels.

What's Silver telling us ....?

More signs that Mr. Market wants a bounce and just waits for some random catalyst ...

MONEYFLOW MOMENTUM deviates from the Price MOMO....

...for the key large Cap. institutional portfolio....

 ...and for the Prec. Metals portfolio....

...which should give further signs of a potential impending bounce, or better ...it will not take much to bounce from here!

Our TimeCycles also suggest some possibility of a bounce

Commodities could rise....

 ...as the Dollar could consolidate....

 ...while the Euro sees some short covering...

 ....elevating the MINERS...

 ...and the rest of the RISK TRADE like Large Cap 'safehaven' stocks.

...for maybe a month or so, retesting the solidity of the recent bear action.

The bears had the chance and they took it...

Last wee we spoke from epic battles and the latent desire of Mr. Market to go lower. The fact that we jumped the chance of a bounce seems like a strong medium term signal. At this juncture though , still against a backdrop of a more bearish outlook, the market feels oversold and could/ should bounce from here.

The Euro got really hit hard and represents the core of our epic battle theme. What looked like a faked break down actually became one and now looks oversold. Anything can happen here.

 See an update on our TREND picture for the Small Caps....

 Tech...

and the VIX.

A bounce seems possible outside an ARMAGEDDON

"fast moves follow false moves" - episode EURO

Crosscurrents of the epic battle

Apple has seen big outflows to a degree that one could expect a bounce from here.

 The EURO, despite of getting hit last week, still looks for a final bounce....

 ...as does the DXY....

 ...the levered Bull ETFs support the take on AAPL above....

...and this is all taking place against the backdrop of medium-term bearish outlook !!

Mr. Market wants to see a deeper correction

The leading commodity powerhouse in LatAM wants to show the way.

 ....but we experience an epic struggle of the forces...

 ....with maybe a consensus in the late bloomer GOLD that likes to top months after the equity markets in these kind of environments....

 ....all others seem in sync....

 ...and even the 20yr TSY looks tired...

 ....while the VIX is getting stronger by the day....

Mr. Market missed the opportunity to rise ?