VixOsc is close to flip bearish

If the VixOsc flipps our overall Trading model would also turn bearish (to -50%). Let's have a close eye on this.

Can the Euro defend the Breakout ?

Next couple of days will be interesteting .....

The Euro has reached our Target

The Euro has reached our target or better a crucial crossroad. we also added our chart from 2 weeks for comparision.

From here 2 path seem possible as shown in the chart.

Given how 'attached' the Euro is to the Risk Trade we can assume all will move hand in hind.

 When the Market flips, all will follow.

 The Euro shows all signs of Exhaustion with plenty of divergences and extremes.

End of January seems like a good time window for a temporary top.

Blow out time for the Bulls?

Our Correlation Spike Analysis hints at the posibility of a bullish blow out which normally leads to an Exhaustion and is part of a topping pattern.

Model is still 50% Long.

The Model is taking some profits

...and much more in SUSI Graphs.

Opex pump job into a toppting pattern

Anatomy of a Top:

1-correlations rise: done

 2- Option Players getting in position (see neg Div): done

3- The VIX feels 'paranormal' :done

4-Sentiment gets overbought: done

5- pump the market up into an Option Expiration

Risk is growing underneath the surface

Correlations are rising....

 The agg. Trend Indicator develops a neg Div. while the trading model is still long.

 The banks all seem to look alike....

Institutional Breadth reaches excessive levels

Warning Signs in the bullish wonderland

When we look at the overall model we see an ideal position of 100% long since the beginning of the year. What is reason for concern ist the amount of negative Divergences in the contributing elements. Particularly concerning are the deviation for the Banks, China and the Euro.

Summary:

NEGATIVE DIV 

SMH

FXI

IWM

FXE

BAC

JPM

MS

JNJ

POSITIVE DIV:

AAPL

SLV

NEUTRAL:

GE

FXA

AMGN

Plain Bullish:

XOM

NEM

Pls. see for yourself. There is the smell of an Exhaution in the air, let's see how quickly it materializes.

(all charts and more can be found in SUSI Charts)

We always look for new way to see the market and like the approach to analyse the TWITTER feed which can be found at TWITTER Sentiment.

Double and triple Divergences in most Sentiment Indicators and the EURO

3 big figures in 2 days thanks to Super Mario, but is does NOT change the bigger picture!!