MOMO update

Solid outflows but no price reaction yet !!
...same
How much deeper? Volume/ Flow looks good, Price MOMO might have another leg down up it's sleeve.....
Banks look bad !

OptionFlows

Core Hldgs still bearish.
same in TECH
Bullish Optionflows in GOLD !! (maybe another last leg down down...?)
Banks look VERY bearish

Sentiment & Breadth update

Breadth still seems to hint at a more tradedable correction, but needs more conviction to support a more bearish posture. On the other side we see a perceivable lack of participation in the last leg of the rally, which is always bearish.

SENTIMENT: let the pictures speak for themselves.

Exhaustion Watch: Bear Alerts en masse

The Trends get more and more tired by the day with ample of divergences, sell signals, overextended cycles etc.

ISE; CBOE update

...still clearly indicating a topping process.

It all about APPLE and FREEPORT

When we do our daily OptionFlow analysis we always ask for the driving forces of the day. For the last couple of months we clearly identified AAPL, GOOG, BAC, JPM, GS, FCX as the key leading large Cap Stocks. It should come as no surprise to find the BETA MONSTERS Apple & Google as well as some key Banks next to a Gold stock (Freeport) in that Group.

We know we are in an environment with exuberant MOMO, deteriorating BREADTH, deteriorating VOLUME/ Money Flows, so we when can we tell that the Market is ripe for some correction? The answer is, when some of the ALPHA DOGS start to behave badly. Bad action can be break downs and/or Pattern failures or relative weakness.

AAPL: solid upside action, buts sports a neg. MOMO Div since Sep/Oct

GOOG: shows relative weakness in the last 60 days

BAC: shows relative weakness since APRIL !!

JPM: shows relative weakness since OCT. 2009

GS: shows relative weakness since OCT. 2009

FCX: solid upside action, buts sports a neg. MOMO Div since Sep/Oct

The Banks are behaving badly , Google is weakening , so the entire Market hinges on AAPL and FCX. The Moment they fall the entite Market will follow.

OptionFlows, MOMO, VOLUME update

OptionFlows for Institutional Holdings Chart shows nicely a negative Divergence (top Chart) which is primarily driven by a dearth of bear bets (flows, see red line bottom chart)

Momo is still OVERBOUGHT, but we see a substantial deterioration in the MoneyFlows.
The Precious Metals are showing a very similar picture. We have a neg Div and extinct bears.
MOMO is still weakening and still seems to have some way to the downside. On the other side we see a higher low in the Money Flows which is positive.
The story in TECH is also close to the one described above.
...look also at the Money Outflows in Tech
Nobody dared to bet against the banks (red line bottom chart), but nonetheless they seem ripe.

ISE and CBOE Equity Options hint at a good trade on the short side....

Multiyear extreme & Div.....THIS is BIG!!

Short TRADE opportunity:

Golden5: Breadth

Breadth feels toppy across the board of key Asset Classes:

Look at the key Institutional Holdings portfolio:

...at TECH

...and Gold Miners!!

It can go further from here, but it will get harder by the day.

Golden5: Sentiment: Mature TOP

Happy NEW YEAR!!

Today we give you the whole suite of charts to get a feel of how exuberant things have become....

The Option 'PLAYAS' are getting in position.

Exhaustion & Hedgefund Watch

The Hedgies have started to tip their toes into the bear waters...

...while taking some profits off the table...

Our Exhaustion Watch reiterates that we are...

Oversold and tired after the promised SANTA rally... we promised you....

Golden5: Breadth is nicely topping

Lower Lows for the Institutional Portfolio...

...and the same for the TECH group.

"TOPS ARE PROCESSES NOT DATAPOINTS!!!"

Golden5: Sentiment EXTREMES

Santa was in a good mood but will need some reset. Looks at some of those Sentiment Extremes, be it our proprietary VIX_OSC, ISE Call Put ratios or the CBOE data.

We just had the most excessive bullishness in years!!

The platinum trade.

Following ISE extreme Signal (see current extreme here) has been one of the best trades since 2005.

Above we show what have been the optimal Return on Investments had you been followed the ISE Extremes exceeding a Threshold of 0.1 (note the current one is 0.29). On the bull side you had safe bets earning 10%-20% whereby the bearside was more volatile with trades earning 7%-25% within the next 40 trading days.

(NO bad trades in 4 years!! <=> Bears ahoi!!)

I leave you here for the next weeks and wish you a merry x-Mas!!