Saturday, December 19, 2009

SUSI WEEKLY UPDATE


  • Dollar rally has begun with a vengeance
  • 1o Treasury Yield indicate some deflationary tendencies
  • Gold and Dollar might pause a bit here before going the next leg. Both seem to not have reached their targets yet (mid Jan 2010 ; look also at a Chart of SLV for silver with a clear trendline breakdown)
  • All 3 main Indices are on solid sells
  • Brasil and China have left the party and seem vulnerable
  • Japan left in September
  • Banks have developped a picturebook rolling top (look at JPM !!)
  • Industrials (XLI) flipped beautifully to the downside
  • ...but what the hack is the VIX doing (maybe related to some positioning in this week's OPEX - Option Expiration)
  • some commidities show resiliancy against the dollar picture


Bottom line:
  1. WATCH the DOLLAR (Dollarstrength <=> stable Equities !!! something has to give here, we are stretching a rubberband and either the dollar will fall back or Equities will surprise to the downside!!)
  2. nobody seems to be interested in weakness around yearend, let's see how long they can uphold the tide
  3. recent Volume Flow Charts (will post an update next week) indicate that the institutionals have continuously taken money of the table since September

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