Golden 5: Sentiment: Put/Call ratio

The Bulls need to get the Call/Put Ratio (inverted Put/Call in the chart) up, because a turn from here could become devastating. Also note the little reverse Sell Signal where the Euphoria sets a higher Higher with a lower High in prices.

When you compare today with 2008 you notice that the 10d Call/Put ratio is about the same level from where things turned nasty, where they didn't even had this exceptional euphoria spike we had in April 2010.....THE BULLS NEED TO ACT FAST....

Golden5: Breadth

Breadth clearly hints at some corrective action. Pls also observe the weakening of the advance since mid last year shown in the 10d A/D lines.

(I'm not completely up and running after the summer break and aim to show you our Demand/Supply Pressure next week again, same for SUSI)

Golden 5: Sentiment

Nothing new here on the Sentiment Side. We look prone for a correction in line with our EXUBERANCE post earlier this week.

Exhaustion Watch

If our Timing Ideas got it correct and the intermediate Top was on Jul 26 then we should see the change of character soon in the Indicators. Our Exhaustion Watch (that looks only at 'exhausted' ETF's) seems to reflect the change in character where the medium & longterm (weekly & monthly Pivots) are still bearish against shortterm (still) bullish Trendindicators. The transition seems to gain hold with the first set of turning signals, Divergence Signals, FibTime clusters.

Gold acting very bullish!

If Gold can defend the Trendchannel, then expect some solid bullish action into next week or Aug 18-22.....

Sentiment: Historical exuberances

Our Vix_Osc is sporting some nice extreme which we had only 6x since 1998. 1998 & 2003 led only to shallow corrections whereby the remaining cases gave us more downside.

Timing Ideas

The Spyder Top will be early this week or mid next week.

Gold looks heading for a Pivot early this week...
....could be an interesting week.

SUMMER BREAK

Dear Reader,

your hunble blogger will be travelling for the rest of the month und therefore will not post for that period.

Market:

The bounce has started right into a week before an early OPEX next week. Jul 11 (+/-) and Jul 22 (+/-) look like potential turning dates which means we will see a fight to push the bounce through the OPEX or a failed bounced into the OPEX.

EXPECT VOLATILITY!!

Target for the Bounce

Potential Turning Days

The Trillion Dollar question: "Will It Be Different This Time?"

The Trillion Dollar question: "Will It Be Different This Time?" h/t dsshort.com

Targets for the Bounce or NOT-Bounce...

Exhaustion Watch

• The Market has completely flipped
• GLD even shows a FAKE BREAKOUT - Vic2 Signal
• most TDSQ daily counters are at 9 which normally has a chance for a flip in the daily count (...from 20 onwards you start to worry about Exhaustions)
• ActB trend has been solidly established as have the weekly & monthly (W_TD_P & M_TD_P) Pivots & TD counts
• Next week could see some short-term turnarounds (I only highlighted the 1. quartile ones, like GLD, BANKS )
• BolBandPos 50,2: Bollinger Band Position indicate some Overbought/-sold readings after last weeks action

Bottom line:

1. Expect a bounce
2. the strength of the bounce will be an important tell
3. the trend is set by the weekly & monthly TREND and they are bearish so we have to see the bounce as a shorting opportunity.

TLT Gartley update

We need a lower weekly low in order to trigger the Gartley sell. Let's see what comes next week...

SUSI WEEKLY UPDATE

We see some downside exhaustion and it looks like 'bounce time'.... (a couple of new signals from this weeks hint this way).

Golden5: Breadth: It's bounce time.....

Our Institutional Money...

..and our large Cap Tech Breadth Analysis...

...show divergenges in all New Lows and Sell Pressure categories which means...

...get ready for the bounce....

Timing Ideas

The Spyder shows no major turning date before the end of July.....(look at the biggie end of september!!)

...so I looked at the banks to see that maybe after the 4th of July, but I find it hard to say whether this could be a High or Low...

Looking at the 2 'flight for quality' trades the pictures look like mirror images. Expect some pivot around next week and/or towards Jul 20.

Bottom Line:

• no clear picture in Equities
• TLT and GOLD could have a good pivot in july which 2 good alternatives

-------------------------------

-------------------------------

Let me maybe add (Jason brought up this question last week) that our FibTime methodology does not look at seasonalities, because ...

1. we like to keep is clean and simple meaning we know that the FibTime Cluster only shows cycle clusters and not more and not less
2. too many parameters impair the reliability of the forcast
3. we still can overlay Seasonality separately if we want

Golden 5: Sentiment picture looks muddled

The Vix picture seem to set up for a bounce. The question remains though how far can the bounce go.....?

We had the pre 4th July week (bullish seasonality !!) and an oversold market but still Mr. Market was so weak that he couldn't bounce, this is BEARISH.

Visualizing Why The Future Of Europe's Financial System Hangs By A Thread

One graph that shows why the risk in Europe is so dramatically bigger then anywhere else....

Compare UK+Germany+France with the US against the background that leverage is higher (=systematic instability) , the Eurozone crisis and the political chaos......

Visualizing Why The Future Of Europe's Financial System Hangs By A Thread

h/t zerohedge

The Great Battle in GOLD II

We warned you of the risk of a HEADFAKE in Gold and .....did we get a breakdown yesterday (by the way exactly on the day of our FibTime projection).

...but this was not the real news last night.

Yesterday we also experienced the complete decoupling of the US$-Euro-Gold correlation, where we had a strengthening Euro with falling Gold.

We hinted at this possibility around June 19, when we showed you the Gartley 222 in the Euro which has triggerd a BUY Signal with the higher weekly High we printed yesterday.....

How long can this go....ia anybody's guess, but what we do know is that we had Exhaustions in the EURO, GOLD, DOLLAR and that the simple relief moves (short covering!!) can go for some time.....

Today we also have the PAYROLL data coming in the US which can add even more Volatility to this.....