Saturday, July 3, 2010

Exhaustion Watch


  • The Market has completely flipped
  • GLD even shows a FAKE BREAKOUT - Vic2 Signal
  • most TDSQ daily counters are at 9 which normally has a chance for a flip in the daily count (...from 20 onwards you start to worry about Exhaustions)
  • ActB trend has been solidly established as have the weekly & monthly (W_TD_P & M_TD_P) Pivots & TD counts
  • Next week could see some short-term turnarounds (I only highlighted the 1. quartile ones, like GLD, BANKS )
  • BolBandPos 50,2: Bollinger Band Position indicate some Overbought/-sold readings after last weeks action

Bottom line:
  1. Expect a bounce
  2. the strength of the bounce will be an important tell
  3. the trend is set by the weekly & monthly TREND and they are bearish so we have to see the bounce as a shorting opportunity.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks. I went long mid of last week on the same assumptions. Though down a bit, i am more than positive that i will do good next week.

    I believe we are forming a Major bottom as opposed to continued bear market. I am of the opinion that we will clearly see a higher low formed before continuing downward. Right now, turn on your tv or watch any website, everywhere everyone is calling for a crash. In fact, i have never seen so many blogs comparing last friday's state of market with 87 and 29 crashes. This in itself will make way for upside. :-)

    Do you believe in these crash theories? I mean just one data point to compare and taking that to make predictions is ridiculous? don't you think? Do you believe in Hindenburg Omen?

    I personally feel that charts do not have emotions and which means what it did once or twice has NO significance. Instead analysis such as yours with so many indicators and touch points has much more weightage than these ridiculous thoughts.

    Any thoughts?

    Thanks again for sharing your valuable analysis with investors/traders such as myself.

    Happy 4th.

    ReplyDelete