Saturday, August 21, 2010

SUSI medium term special

When I first experiemented with SUSI I also set up a feature that does Fibonacci Fans and Retracements on Weekly Charts with a special twist. The Twist being that we apply these ratio on log-price data rather then on the raw price data (which then only gets charted on a log scale). Both approaches have their merits whereby the latter one is easier to chart and has therefore found its way into all charting software packages. I found the other variation as valuable as the popular one and when you look at the enclosed charts you will find the same.

I use the usual Fib ratios from 23.6-38.2-61.8-78.2-127-138-168 for the Fans as well as for the RETs. (The charts have no Y-axis for technical reasons)

Beyond that I played with the concept of important/ meaningful support/resistance trendlines (following some algo that weights and selects pivots for that). You will find these trendline in red and blue.

Here is what SUSI showed today for last week:

1) EURYEN

2) SEMICONDUCTORS (SOX)
3) GERMAN DAX
4) BANKS (BKX)
5) OIL & GAS/ Energy Sector (XOI)


Above you'll find selected key sectors and they all seem to tell a similar story. Maybe there is a way to spin this positively but I'm lacking the fantasy of how ....

The beauty of these charts is the fact that they present a true representations of Mr. Market's state of mind, because these levels are not frequently targeted and played by the ROBOT-traders that mostly focus on the popular Fib-lines to play their hunting games. (WHERE YOU ARE THE PREY!!). This is what I call my 2nd Derivative concept, where we look at what all the others look at, try to understand their conclusions and do something else ...like with a proprietary Indicator....

Bottom Line:
We have taken out some key Fib Levels and the Bulls have to regain those before we will loose the ghost named "DOUBLE DIP".

In other words, buckle up for some rough sledding into October.

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