MOMO still has room to the downside...

the next leg up could be explosive, given where MoneyFlows are...
Ouch, the Banks look bad.
Bottom line:

Follow MOMO and Flows first and look for confirmation in the Sentiment. Thus expect more consolidation.

OptionFlows: Bearishness seems to evaporate....

Not a lot of Price action for the outflow of beraishness in the Inst. Portfolio.

Tech could be topping...
Gold has a date with destiny next week....
Banks are still week.

Exhaustion Watch:...the dugs are aligning !!

Convergence of Indicators leads to very powerful set ups which you do NOT want to ignore.

Golden5: Breadth still in No Man's Land

Make or Break at S&P500

Golden5: Sentiment picture continues to get worse

Negative Divergences...

So much more space to cover on the downside at the ISE & CBOT

The Euro seems aiming at 125 on the way to below 1.20

The Euro must strengthen fairly soon or will be heading for 1.25 as the next stop. Portugal & Spain seem to be next according to the Euro chart.

Exhaustion Watch: Countertrend Rally!

Against the backdrop of the Exhaustion Watch and the MOMO & FLOW picture and the broad Sentiment , but also taking into account a more mixed micro Sentiment look, I would broadly think that the correction has started, experienced some countermove in the OPEX ( ...remember this used to be Hank Paulson's speciality given that they needed good weather for GM!!!) and still has nor finished yet.

MOMO & Volume MOMO update

The Inst. Hldgs. MOMO is OBERBOUGHT as is the FLOW MOMO. Look at the last 2 yrs and observe that we should expect at least a 1-

month pause or correction......and the Banks look worse.
Prec. Metals on the other hand look like they are gettin' ready for rock'n'roll. The Flows look like they want to explode and the still OVERBOUGHT MOMO needs only another brief respite to trigger the move....

(You have to wait for the upturn given that the FLOW picture did NOT support that last run up and created that ugly looking Divergence - look at the beginning of Q4 on the chart)
Bear in mind that in the world of THE GOLDEN5 Rules MOMO, FLOW MOMO come before Sentiment. This means that we always have to interpret SENTIMENT in the context of the then existing MOMO & MOMO FLOW picture.

OPEX in Review II

Our Inst. Hldgs. Portfolio still has aFibTime cluster next week, but some of the Optionplayers have silently taken some of the bullish Sentiment out of the Market without moving it too much to the downside. This is normally BULLISH. We have to see how far the Call/Put ratios can go down.

The Prec. Metals have also lost some of the exuberance but still seem tohave a week or so to go..
The Banks on the other side look bearish and the Call/Put ratio looks still overbought. Let's monitor next week.
Tech looks bullish ! The CallÜut has nicely reached a level from where it took of in September.

An easy day for the Playas.....

Yesterday was one of those free lunch god sent days where the market was lower the first 1/2 hour , nicely under the key resistance of 120.

All they had to do was to push it above the VWAP, trigger some squeeze and scalp back and forth for the remainder of the day, before leaving at right it right at 120 while exiting their open position.......

"Greed is now legal" alive and kicking, thx to all the mini Geckos...

OPEX in review

The VIX_OSCs both show a weak picture...

Does this look like the BEGINNING or the END.....CBOT and ISE both tell the same story.

The playas pushed it up into the OPEX and now it has to show wether it can stick?

Some Observations...

It feels like as if our next FibTime Cluster will show as a HIGH early next week...

The Gold correction doesn't look done yet. The weekly RSI also needs more respite...

The Euro has reached the test and needs to decide what's going to happen at the next test of the red/green line....

Golden5: Breadth: same old....

No real change here. The bulls are weakening but the bears are also pushing.....

Last time we had a 1yr Divergence was at the 1999-2000 Top

The up to total Volume Indicator has been reliable in the past. As with most indicators the rules of reciprocity apply where the extent of the anomaly (here divergence, see marked in yellow) relate to the extent of the subsequent Market reaction.

In plain english, the longer the Market went up without a proper technical support be it Volume or Breadth the deeper the correction.

So we have to wonder whether it is different this time or not.....?

Golden5: Sentiment update into the next OPEX...

This will be an interesting OPEX with the FibTime Clusters around Nov25-29.

Quantitative Easing Explained for a 6yr old

I loved it !!!

Watch the BOND VIGILANTES!

The 20yr TSY as well as the Corp. Bonds hint at more troubles ahead...

...pls also observe that we break into a new 'bearish' zone on the RSI.

Exhaustion Watch: What a fireworks .....

the sheer sum of Divergences (I try to mark them in black) in all differnt categories, ActB, MACD plus Candle signals plus exhaustion (as primary filter for the list) and even a VIC2 (fake breakout) signal....

Something has happend here.....

MOMO & VOLUME update

Below you will find our combined MOMO Price & MOMO Money FLOW chart.

For our aggregated Institutional 'must hold'Portfolio gravity simply hit boundaries. Price and Money Flow was just overheating after the QE2 '100% safe' rally.

Look at Gold, Silver, Miners: Interestingly Price was moving much more aggressively then Money Flow, meaning the amount of high octane speculators that bought into prec. metal after a $200 run (Gold) was limited. Let's see how far the correction goes.

Last and least: THE HOT STUFF, like Brazil, China etc.

Golden5: Breadth supports a bearish stance

...but the cum lines (brown & grey) still need to turn down to confirm a trend change

The Euro Pattern goes for the test next week....

Our Nov 6 analysis has worked out nicely. Expect the test of the 0 - B Line next week. This will be the key test for the Market and will determine most likely where all the other risk Markets are going.

We marked the test area in yellow.

Golden5: Sentiment: Interesting VixOsc Pattern hints a more weakness into year-end

Golden5: Sentiment: Divergence continues

Golden5: Volume

The Volume support has been healthy throughout the last months, but seems to fade ......

As of now we still have positvite Volume MOMO base on eff. Volume Flow, but we are at fairly overbought levels.

Compare the VOL FLOW analysis with the Prec. Metals Flows (GLD, SLV, GDX).
2 conclusions:

1. Stocks look vulnerable
2. Gold could suprise to the upside

Both conclusions can also be reconciled with the Sentiment, MOMO analysis.....be careful out there....

Exhaustion Watch

A very advanced, exposed market....

Look at all the extremes above, the correlations all at 90% ......