With so much bullishness and extremely overextended stock market and extremely oversold $$$, i'd really think it is not possible for further gains. But again, i have been proven wrong more number of times in the last 18 months than right. This market is NOT for the sane and logical folks. You flip a coin, call for it, yet you always go in one direction is what folks need to do in this kind of market. Long.
On the flip side, all of my indicators are still solidly in negative territory since last wednesday with tons of negative divergences.
Look at IWM. It is acting like a 3X ETF now. Why would anynone buy TZA/TNA when IWM is doing the same thing, much more safely. :-)
PS: You asked me about my chart. It is based on a combination of PCR and BP.
I had just a curious question. Your analysis was mostly centered around TD and Fib for stocks/etfs/markets. Why did you start Options? Options are the single most confusing thing on the planet. Naked puts/calls are more these days than actual trading. Hence, the volumes say very little of what type of trade it is, because it just disappears from the OI next day. Also, it is not easy to figure out if the option volume is a buy or a sell for put/call. Which leaves us with the question of whether the dataset from options really make any sense to analyze. I do realize that the spread between puts/calls could tell us something, but again, it could simply state that one is in more demand than the other. Which direction is difficult to say owing to the above.
Options are tricky, but they are also the single best Sentiment gage that is out there. I always wanted to do that but had to wait for my Data provider to give me all the Option latters I needed. So far the results are promising although I need to built more history. stay tuned.
Market: I believe we're experiencing a HUGE bull trap and will see lots of blood..... (purely based on the GOLDEN5)
With so much bullishness and extremely overextended stock market and extremely oversold $$$, i'd really think it is not possible for further gains. But again, i have been proven wrong more number of times in the last 18 months than right.
ReplyDeleteThis market is NOT for the sane and logical folks. You flip a coin, call for it, yet you always go in one direction is what folks need to do in this kind of market. Long.
On the flip side, all of my indicators are still solidly in negative territory since last wednesday with tons of negative divergences.
Look at IWM. It is acting like a 3X ETF now. Why would anynone buy TZA/TNA when IWM is doing the same thing, much more safely. :-)
PS: You asked me about my chart. It is based on a combination of PCR and BP.
Thanks
Jason
I had just a curious question. Your analysis was mostly centered around TD and Fib for stocks/etfs/markets.
ReplyDeleteWhy did you start Options? Options are the single most confusing thing on the planet. Naked puts/calls are more these days than actual trading. Hence, the volumes say very little of what type of trade it is, because it just disappears from the OI next day.
Also, it is not easy to figure out if the option volume is a buy or a sell for put/call. Which leaves us with the question of whether the dataset from options really make any sense to analyze.
I do realize that the spread between puts/calls could tell us something, but again, it could simply state that one is in more demand than the other. Which direction is difficult to say owing to the above.
Thots?
Options are tricky, but they are also the single best Sentiment gage that is out there. I always wanted to do that but had to wait for my Data provider to give me all the Option latters I needed. So far the results are promising although I need to built more history.
ReplyDeletestay tuned.
Market: I believe we're experiencing a HUGE bull trap and will see lots of blood..... (purely based on the GOLDEN5)