Friday, September 9, 2011

Safehaven dynamics

I stumbled across an idea at zerohedge.com which I looked into and found the following 'Safehaven Dynamic Pattern':


PATTERN
  • look for extreme negative 3m correlation btw. Gold and the SPY (A) which indicated a panic flight into Gold
  • observe how the stock market tanks and gold launches up to the moon (B) & (C)...
  • where the almost perfect negative correlation indicated the turning point into a correction of the safehaven (D), because massive liquidations eventually catch up with gold

3 OBSERVATIONS
  1. Spring 2008
  2. Summer 2010
  3. Fall 2011

Conclusion:
If history is any guide we could see a correction in GOLD. We want to monitor the next 1-2 month in order to decide whether gold will just correct (2010) or follow the market (2008).
In either case we should expect that gold will correlate more positively with the market ...be it down or up....

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