Mr. Market seen through the lens of Apple

Apple is the ultimate Alphadog in this market. Apple dominates the Tech sector, the optionflows and should lead the market either way. So waht has Apple to tell us....

Medium term: 

Expect some painful correction in a couple of weeks (6-8 ?). The Structure seems developped and probably only needs some final push to mature.

Short term:
we could expect a pause/correction or see a case where the overbought situation leads to a upside break out and thus to some action on the upside. This could develop another neg. Divergence which would eventually trigger the medium term scenario.

Further hints for a short term 'melt up' can be found in the OptionSkews over time. As of now the downside is already priced in which should be bullish.

When we look at the Skews over time we see that a correction started to be priced in over the last weeks. We had a similar situation after x-mas when a small correction was also priced in and run over. This time it is even more pronounced because we find the same structure in the 1 month skews and in the 3 months (bottom chart).

Bottom line:

• maybe a short pause.....
• followed by a potential melt up....
• which will turn out to be a fake upside breakout.....
• that will lead into deeper correction