A warning sign?

Our Alternative VixOSC looks overbought in the cummulative version.... 

....and in the plain version....

on the other side the default VixOSC still defends the bullish (positive) Zone. We are alterted by the muted market moves over the last days that were accompanied by more material moves in the VIX, which has affeceted our indicators (Divergence).

One of our best Horses is still long OIL

The Public Opinion allows for more upside in OIL.

(source: http://www.sentimentrader.com)

The Seasonals for Crude are good up to September.

(source: http://www.sentimentrader.com)

Our  correlation/ Risk ON- Trading Model is bullish supported bei the VixOSC and our Trend Indicator.

The Heart of the rally: THE EURO BOUNCE

The we should expect vola from the premium structure in the FXE options.

 Our Trend Analysis supports the Vola view with an upside bias.

 Our TimeCycles model provides us with a timeframe of 1 month.

The Public Opinion view hints at a neg. Euro Sentiment in biblical prportions, a.k.a. 'concentrated short positions' that cry for a short covering rally as started on Thursday (chart is from Tuesday).

A monthlong Euro rally will support a broader rally in the entire RISK TRADE from Equities, Gold to rising yield with falling credit spreads.

Sentiment Indicators see more upside ahead

We might see some short term pause....

...but the intermediate outlook seems promising

Vix FairValue:

VixOsc:

ISE & CBOE Equity Options:

....but be careful because the intermediate time window might only last more than a couple of days, maybe 1-2 weeks. Anything beyond that is out of our scope....

More Upside ?

Gold Sentiment as of Tuesday looks promising