Scenario 1: Correction
If the current move is a final capitulation or downside exhaustion within a larger corrective Pattern then the following move should be explosive to the upside. The rationale lies in the dimension of the correction which indicates that the conclusion of this 2 yr correction could kick off the next phase of the bull market which would view 1999-2011 just as a warm up.
Sentiment, Momentum, Pattern, Seasonality support this view.
Scenario 2:
The Gold market breaks down, then we should embrace the 1300 area as the next target with a 1450 stop in between.
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