Another Chance for a Peak ?

Observations

• The QQQQ (NASDAQ) blue Lg. Trader's line is not confirming the higher High of the Price (grey)
• The Dow Jones TimeCycles sport a High % time window which either means a Top , a blow off dynamic or could be ignored....
  
  

Why does Silver not foloow Gold ...?

• Silver is considered as GOLD on Steroids with repect to its Volatility
• Silver usually leads gold
• Silver right now is not following Gold to new Highs (Divergence !!)
• Silver sports Divergences to Gold at turning points
• SUSI kept a Sell on Silver
• our SUSI Indicator (see (1)) doesn't seem to develop a higher High, which would have been bullish
• ...neither does the price action (see(2))
• we might get some good chances for a low in the future (see (3) TimeCycles)

Could Gold and Silver develop a Headfake ?

Pls see also this post from the ETF CORNER and our GLD flow post from yesterday

SUSI Roadmap for the next month or two....

This is the price range we have to deal with.......

Susi bets on sell from a good overbought medium term level....

...with a potential next stop in October...

...for the DOW as well as for the Banks...


...and all happend right in the turning time zone of the bear market rally.

IS this the one? We don't know yet and need more confirmation. This could develop into it but doesn't have to....so let's take one step at a time.....

SUSI is turning neagtive.....

^dji: Dow Jones, XLI: Industrials, CRB: Commodities, ^BKX: BANKS......
(find more in this week's weekly update)

Emerging Markets

In our SUSI Pattern Chart you find 3 different kind of signals next to our standard auto trendlines.

1. Diamonds: Exhaustion Signals,
2. "little clouds": CTI(w) (Cycle Turn Indicator - weekly),
3. circles: regular Susi trading signals

In our SUSI Chart you now find:

1. the SUSI Signal (lower lows or higer highs around the SUSI Indicator) like the EEM SELL SIGNAL
2. The CTI(W) that is rather Overbought and lies on top of a combined DAILY+WEEKLY+MONTHLY CTI combination (Cycle Turn Indicator )
3. OUR TCs (TimeCycles: high probability Fibonacci time projections clustered) that show some potential turning points for mid Sep. and mid Oct.
4. Our new TIMEBANDS show potential HIGH or LOW Time projections based on classical cycle analysis (for differnt timeframes), which show 2 longer red lines indicating a potential low in the Oct. Timeframe.

(the red and green points on the blue closing price line show Tom De Mark signals as add'l reference)

EM is supposed to be the pulling forces in the economic upturn.

Susi seems to thing otherwise.

Bank & Interest Rate SUSI update

SUSI WEEKLY UPDATE

BANKS are now out of the woods.....(?!?)

Highlights of the week:

1. vertical rise in the banks resulting in exhaustion
2. failure of china & tech to follow
3. break down of the Baltic dry Index (Shipping cost!)
   

NASDAQ SUSI update

• SUSI Indicator is in a topping position
• TC (TimeCycles) indicate chance of a turn
• Tom DeMark Signals

Bottom: The probability is good for a turn.

SUSI SELL SIGNAL

• The S&P500 and the Dow are showing Sell signals
• The market is deeply overbought and could correct from here.....
• Still we have the 2 range defining "make or break" areas (875 and 950#s) that we have to overcme to this market a direction
• CAUTION: This is a fresh signal that could vanish if it doesn't get confirmed
  
  

What if SUSI is trying to warn us of a bull trap....?

If Mr. Market can continue to rise all bearish bets are off for the next weeks....

...but what if this was just an OX (option expiration week) bull fluke......

We have to stay open to all sides!!!

Breakdowns!!

The market get pulled down buy commodities and former leading sectors like Teck break down, which supports the more downside.

SUSI key sector update

New SUSI CHART

This chart shows how important it is to cluster. SUSI is just a high probability Indicator that needs support from other approaches....

More Exhaustions & Signals

Look at the Signals......the right sectors like consumer, transports and emerging markets and commodities.....are exhausted  and also seem to show TimeCycles (see glossary).

It all feels like as if the market wants to roll over, as also shown by BREADTH, VOLUME, SENTIMENT, MOMO & Context as you can see here below.

If the market DOES NOT break over the next week or two and can overcome this GOLDEN5 setup, this would be BULLISH at least for the next months before Mr. Market will try again....

SUSI NASDAQ SELL SIGNAL

A Market top is a process not a data point that needs to evolve. The more ripe situations we count the closer we get to the conclusion of the process.

Be careful to not mistake a Sector Rotations for a top.

Having the leading Tech Sector to trigger a Sell seems like a good start which needs to stick next week in oder to develop a top.