watch the leading SEMI's

Semiconductors are usually the leading sector in any recovery so we want to watch where the semi's go....

Technical Update: We are right in the ZONE!

More Exhaustions & Signals

• EURYEN (lower chart) has been a good proxy for the rise and fall in asset prices (also a carry trade vehicle) and has triggered not only an exhaustion signal but also a DeMark Sequential Set up of extreme length. Of the 43 Sell set ups since 2000 none could be found that ran 22 days before it experienced a "flip".
• Additionally we now also have the Industrials (top chart) in the group that triggered a signal
• We further notice more and more TC (TimeCycles) spikes for mid to end july which could signal some turn in that period, either an extended top or a low of an upcoming consolidation

Pls bear in mind the nature and mechanics of Exhaustion Signals being MOMO (Momentum) extremes with the interpretation to signal MOMO exhaustion today with a high probability to turn the trend between now and approx. the next 2 weeks.

GOLDEN5: MOMO

One of my most reliant Momentum Indicator is my proprietary SUSI indicator. SUSI incorporates not only a Price (like RSI, MACD etc) but also a Time dimension and aggregates over 3 timeframes.

I have learnt the hard way that it is very risky to position yourself against her (yes SHE seems to have a personality....) , meaning the probabilities are then stacked against you. On the otherside a Move can be so strong temporarily that it overbalances SUSI (pls find examples in the chart). Additionally to SUSI I some of the Tom DeMark Indicators as confirmation tools.

A High Probability set up is ususally where SUSI (green line) shows a higher low (less MOMO and more tired move) on top of a Tom DeMark Signal (pls bear in mind that T. DeMarks can linger on for a week or two before showing action...) and vice versa for the Sell side.

Observations:

(1) SUSI is in the process of developing a higher high which proves strenth in the market !

(2) SUSI has not experienced a reasonable low since the Low, i.e. the current move is strong

(3) My time cluster (fibonacci driven) signals a potential pivot in mid to late May

Conclusions

1. The bull MOMO is strong
2. ...but lacks a good correction. The most bullish scenario whould be where SUSI comes down and sets a higher low levelwise in the proximity of the last low. This scenario could lead to a bull move into the late summer , ...but we'd need a reasonable correction (1-2months)
3. The current move could continue another 2 weeks
4. Time Cluster just highlight the opportunity of an emerging High or Low, which could also mean the shaping of an intermediate Low into the 2nd half of MAY which in turn could contradict SUSI for a short time period

Add'l Observations:

• The 2 leading sectors of Technology and Consumer Disc. have already shown good SUSI higher highs and Trendline breakouts which supports the a.m. from a context (Golden5: Context) point of view...
• ..on the other side the Banks are lagging or not confirming which is a clear warning...