Saturday, May 16, 2009

Cross Market Analysis









The OIL Complex is starting to become susceptible for a potential correction. Pls notice that SUSI (MOMO Indicator) send a sell signal and my TimeCycle Index point at a potential turning point in the near future.

The oil complex also has the tendency to follow a certain seasonality which seems independent of OIL bein in a bull or bear market. The Seasonality cleary send a bearish signal for June...

When we look further to the DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) and also the EURYEN pair we have to acknowledge a certain degree of exhaustion.Strength in the DXY will indicate that the next deleveraging phase has begun. The same is true for EURYEN which has experienced a remarkable correlation to all asset runs in the last years (CARRY TRADE) and which has also acted as leading indicator with some reliability. Therefore the recent weakness should serve as warning.

Bottom Line:Dollar Strength + Unwinding of EURYEN Carry Trade + weakness in OIL ==>> HIGH RISK

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