Friday, May 1, 2009

GOLDEN 5: BREADTH


OBSERVATIONS:
  • over 80% of all stocks trade above their SMA50
  • "a good tide lifts all boats"
  • the move from March was almost linear up

Conclusion:

  • Look at the last 3 instances
  • the chances are stacked against additional upside momo (momentum)
  • the market is pricing in a perfect recovery in H2-2009
  • all participants seem on the same side (bull)

It could run another week or two (more likely less now that the month end is behind us) but levitation should end at some point....

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