Saturday, June 20, 2009

Breadth & Volume update

The Breadth develops as projected in our last update.

Pls bear in mind that Volume as well as Breadth indicators like the % of stock above 50MA or 200MA have a tendency to either spike and turn or to spike and retest (with a spike of lesser intensity).




Summary:
  • the correction has started
  • the correction can develop into a retest with higher Prices and lower Indicator readings (divergence), which ultimately would be bearish
  • the intensity of the earlier spikes alludes to a late summer retest of the highs (medium term bullish). In order for this scenario to materialize the market has to defend the march lows (i.e. no waterfall crash in the summer)
  • the depth of the correction at this point is uncertain
  • Once the correction gets confirmed and develops real momentum (20d Lows spikes, 10:1 Volume down days etc) a better assessment of potential targets is possible

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