Saturday, June 6, 2009

SUSI TURN Indicator - TECHNOLOGY

The same concept (DR BRETT INITIATED) that I use with a "must have institutional holdings" portfolio and also tested here with the 50 largest holdings in the qqqq or Nasdaq100 Index.

The message is surprisingly similar or even stronger (bearish).

The key rules work as follows:
  • look for deteriorating ratios for each of the 4 categories (20day new Highs, 20d new Lows, Buying Pressure, Selling Pressure) as turn indicators, see (1) + (2)
  • look for breakouts in the 4 categories above 20 or 180 (it's all rescaled for graphical reasons) as confirmations of CHANGE
  • check the overall "climate" (bear vs bull) by assessing which cummulated line is on top (either the quicker net 20d cum or the net pressure cum) , see (3) + (3a)

(pls bear in mind that the blue line represents the TREND adj. Nasdaq100 and not the INDEX itsself)

Conclusions:

Unless they blow out the a.m. set with relentless buying, expect a correction that could last at least a couple of weeks.....and then we see...



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