Saturday, July 4, 2009

Green Shoots vs. Reality (0:1 after Friday's Employment data)

I cannot endorse enough the great posts over at the team from ZERO. Those guys are digging deeper and try to explain some of the things we notice here on the surface at REFLECTIONS.

Our mission is more on the descriptive side and blogs like ZEROHEDGE or Naked Capitalism or the weekly must reads from John Mauldin (outside the box and Frontline) (find all the links on the right side of our blog page where you see what we read...) or David "Rosie" Rosenberg (simply register it's worth it for your daily economics fix ) deliver you with some possible explanations.

You have to make up your own mind, but something doesn't feel right here with this mystical, green shoots monster rally that defies all economic fundamental data points.

In cases like this I always apply the "CSI" approach by asking ...
  • "Who is profiting from this?",
  • "What does it take to keep this current green shoots scenario alive?",
  • "Will all this monetary stimulus lead to new home sales, new car sales, comsumption ?,
  • "What are you doing on a personal level, spending or saving?",
  • "Do we experience a fundamental psychological shift with respect to debt, like in the 1930's and will will this affect the next 80 yrs".......
  • "Will people finally start to invest more time into their financial future than into the research of their next new car....?"

Against this backdrop.....
must see video:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/themis-trading-principal-program.html

Great open question with respect to Sentiment:

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