Saturday, October 24, 2009

Gold & RISK update


Volume & Flow for GLD:
(see last post for more explanantions)



COT REPORT on GOLD:





  • We saw a price spike in Gold followed by some PUMP & DUMP which warns of profit taking

  • The COT report as of Friday still shows an extreme SHORT position held by the Commercials


Conclusion:

  1. We could see some fairly impulsive action on the downside (unless we can somehow resolve this extreme COT situation)

  2. If Gold tumbles it could take the other markets hostage and indicate a (temporary) end to the carry trade (short US$ - long risk, like commodities, emerging markets etc.)

  3. Any weakness in Gold will also show as strength in the US$

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