Saturday, October 17, 2009

SUSI WEEKLY UPDATE


Observations:
  • Some Sectors or Markets are insanely over-extended (Tech, DJI, Staples)
  • Susi has flipped OIL and some of the commodities, but most of them can easily flip back
  • The banks turned down again
  • The Semis struggle to break out
  • Goldminers look bearish which ususally tend to lead Gold, Silver also went too far too fast..
  • Euphoria seems back after the breakout in OIL and Gold
  • How much lower can the Dollar fall. Always bear in mind that with low single digits % of Bulls (SENTIMENT) most bears have already sold. You need to find the next dollar bull that throws in the towel in order to let it fall further.....otherwise it will bottom!! Even the FT started publicly (through alphaville.com) to laugh about ROSENBERG & EDWARDS for their bearish stance....

Bottom line:

We are close to next crossroads with the Dow at 10000 and the S&P500 at 1100 (close to 1120!!) and Mr. Market has to decide how he can throw a curveball to most participants, that all believe the bottom is in, fundamentals look up ....bla..bla..bla.

When you follow the earnings this season pls bear in mind that "you can not grow (your revenues) infinitely by cutting cost (exceeding / improving EPS)" at some point we need real growth, new credit, new jobs etc. or will face a day of reckoning.

I believe you know by now that your humble blogger does not believe in fairy tails.....

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