Friday, January 1, 2010

Golden5: Sentiment: YEAREND ASSESSMENT

VIX FUTURE- VIX SPREAD
A story of miracle healings and levitations.....! Will it turn now ? There is a battle going on here and it seems someone is trying to stem the tide......


Call/Put Ratios
A high Call/Put ratio in Stock options indicate that the "PLAY'AS" are betting on higer Stock prices and is therefore a good indicator for outright speculation.

A high Call/Put ratio in INDEX options indicate that the "PLAY'AS" have reduced their Hedging of existing Long positions and mirrors a bullish posture.

We see a nice neg. Divergence on the Stock Options side and on top a huge spike in the "reduced" hedging. Both Signals indicate bullish Sentiment extremes and historically have to be interpreted in a bearish way.



VIX OSCilator
This Monster divergence btw. the Cash Equity Index (blue line) and the synthetic (VIX) Equity Index is still shaping up. (red line is the differential btw. the Synth. and the Cash Index). The current extent of the Div is one of the biggest since 1987 (begin if the VIX data series)

This has to resolve one way or the other. The nature of the neg. Divergence gives the benefit to the bear case.


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