- The bear has taken control
- Mr. Market has tried to bounce this week a couple of times but failed
- a bounce from oversold levels is likely in the near future but the key question is: WILL it stick?
- we see a TCS cluster around Feb 10 & Feb 20, so maybe the 1st Impulse runs another week after we have now taken out 1085 (S&P500) and seem to sit on an airpocket (resistant free area) down to 1030...
- The Dollar is facing initial exhaustion, which indicates a bounce
The Market is running through the 1st Impulse wave that is usually followed by a Wave B or 2 that retraces 38-61% of Wave 1. Have we reached the end of Wave 1 yet? Mr. Market will tell us.
Pls bear in mind that oversold levels usually lead to bounces, but if a Market can NOT bounce then we could see some much deeper oversold levels in a very short time frame (FEB 10 or 20??). This could be a possibility, although a less likely one (a crash scenario is always unlikely!!), but one that is supported by the amount of breakdowns we saw Thursday and Friday in sectors like the S&P500, Energy (XLE), China, Brasil, Semiconductors and the relentless strengths of the DOLLAR. The Dollar INDEX will target 81.50 which should act like a magnet for the before described. If the $ slices through then buckle up.....
No comments:
Post a Comment