Friday, June 25, 2010

Reflections of TLT

Thanks Jason_70 for you kind remarks. Following your comment on the TLT (20yr Treasury ETF) I had the idea to look at the current market through the lense of the TLT .

Let's start with some timing ideas for the next potential energy field or turning point:

...looks like the next 2 weeks will have some soul searching to do.....


Now let's examine the Chart and where we see at #...
1a) + 1b): The TLT is oversold which could limit the move on the upside
2) We see resistance around 100-101
2) We also see a finished Gartley 222
2) Gartley could also extend to the 61.8% Fib level
3) a solid uptrend

High probability case:
  • a turn in the next 1-2 weeks (we need a down week better even with a lower high as confirmation) => up to 1-2 weeks weakness in the Equity markets => 1-2 weeks Dollar weakness & Euro strength......
  • potential turn level either the area around 100 or 104
  • correction could test the upward sloping trendline where a major support around 90-91 is waiting

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