Last week we forecasted some volatilty for the week and Vola we got, but the Equity market didn't falter. This blog has also been in the 'spike it up' into Q1 camp which has worked nicely. Last week we got some crack down in Gold which took place in less than a hour and was not mirrored by Silver (which is normally much more prone to Vola).
All in all we believe that across the Risk Trade we see a rolling exhaustion that will take hold over the next weeks.
==> Medium Term Outlook: Bearish
On the other side bulls die hard thus also looking at unfullfilled Targets in the TIME and PRICE dimension in the GOLD, DXY, EURO, OIL and lukewarm, uncompelling positions in the OPEN INTEREST OPTIONS structure in the Small Caps (IWM), SPY hint at the possibilty that we could see one more reach for the stars.
=> Short Term Outlook: Neutral
Let me illustrate my view from the exhaustion perspective.
Once a Timeseries reaches our formal EXHaustion reading it normally takes a couple of days for the peaking out of the Indicator ('FlameOutPeriod') which is subsequently followed by the topping of the Price of the timeseries ('FlameOut to Price Peak Period'). The sum of both periods usually gives you an idea when to expect the TOP.
For the IWM (Small Caps) we calculated the following:
IWM:
last_EXH = upside Exhaustion
days_since_last_EXH = 19
last_EXH_date =
06-Feb-2012
MEDIAN_FlameOutPeriod_from_EXH_to_EXH_Peak = 4
MEDIAN_time_from_EXH_to_Price_Peak_TDP20 = 39
dates_EXH_Peak time_from_EXH_Peak_to_Price_Peak_TDP20
10-Jan-2002 65
26-Jul-2002 52
12-Jun-2003 21
27-Jan-2004 48
06-Dec-2004 15
30-Dec-2004 44
03-Aug-2005 27
31-Oct-2006 39
22-Nov-2006 23
11-Dec-2006 11
15-Dec-2006 7
24-Nov-2008 70
26-Apr-2010 63
11-Nov-2010 68
29-Dec-2010 36
graphically this would translate into this:
The damage is done....how much more we can expect in the short term
Investors in the lev. Bull ETFs poured some real money into the last run up against a neg. Div. in our MOMO gage.
Gold didn't reach the Target (yet ?)
Hot Money and below the Banks had good runs.
EURO's Open Int. Structure is directionless
Gold actually looks promising
TECH feels rich as does the SPY
All in all we believe that across the Risk Trade we see a rolling exhaustion that will take hold over the next weeks.
==> Medium Term Outlook: Bearish
On the other side bulls die hard thus also looking at unfullfilled Targets in the TIME and PRICE dimension in the GOLD, DXY, EURO, OIL and lukewarm, uncompelling positions in the OPEN INTEREST OPTIONS structure in the Small Caps (IWM), SPY hint at the possibilty that we could see one more reach for the stars.
=> Short Term Outlook: Neutral
Let me illustrate my view from the exhaustion perspective.
Once a Timeseries reaches our formal EXHaustion reading it normally takes a couple of days for the peaking out of the Indicator ('FlameOutPeriod') which is subsequently followed by the topping of the Price of the timeseries ('FlameOut to Price Peak Period'). The sum of both periods usually gives you an idea when to expect the TOP.
For the IWM (Small Caps) we calculated the following:
IWM:
last_EXH = upside Exhaustion
days_since_last_EXH = 19
last_EXH_date =
06-Feb-2012
MEDIAN_FlameOutPeriod_from_EXH_to_EXH_Peak = 4
MEDIAN_time_from_EXH_to_Price_Peak_TDP20 = 39
dates_EXH_Peak time_from_EXH_Peak_to_Price_Peak_TDP20
10-Jan-2002 65
26-Jul-2002 52
12-Jun-2003 21
27-Jan-2004 48
06-Dec-2004 15
30-Dec-2004 44
03-Aug-2005 27
31-Oct-2006 39
22-Nov-2006 23
11-Dec-2006 11
15-Dec-2006 7
24-Nov-2008 70
26-Apr-2010 63
11-Nov-2010 68
29-Dec-2010 36
graphically this would translate into this:
====> We can expect a TOP around mid March 2012 within the broader range of early March to mid April.
(The numbers for the SPY look similar).
The following charts are different looks at the above from a TimeCycles, MOMO, Sentiment perspective.
TECH feels rich as does the SPY
Pls. be informed that there won't be any posting the next 2 weekends.
yours
HistoryRhymes
No comments:
Post a Comment