King Dollar: Quo Vadis after the NFP Employment data ?

Our DXY Timing model could envisage some further Dollar weakness into mid April or maybe into mid May.

Here we introduce another Indicator that will become our main compass going forward. Our Trend model aggregates various Exhaustion, MOMO, FLOW, Options Indicators (all of them LEADING Indicators) into one main TREND Indicator. A reading above ZERO is bullish and a negative reading is bearish. Usually do we want to see confirmation from the 5day moving average (SMA5) to confirm Trend changes.

In this case we see the pounding on the EURO has turned the trend extremely short-term bearish. We have no confirmation from the SMA5 (green bold line). This reiterated the meaning of the 1.3000 level. If 1.30 holds and the 5SMA flips upside and we see a correction in the DXY (top chart) then we are in the 60% case, whereby the odds are also at least 40% for a confirmation of the bear in the EURO.

Next couple of days will tell!!