Weekly TimeCycles and Trend update:...maybe another final retest of the HIGH

This week we present a hodge podge of unsorted observations that all seem to support the idea that we might be close some short term exhaustion and that we could see another rally into the end of April. These shorter term scenarios need to be seen against a more bearish 6 month outlook into this fall.

Kind Dollar might weaken and not 'grow' on last week's momentum. MAY will be the month of the King !!

The brasil EWZ ETF has experienced more damage than the other markets but looks faily exhausted at least short term. We need the Monthly TD Trend to reverse (i.e. the fat dotted line been taken out) before we can conclude that we entered a real bear.

 Euro strength into May supports the notion of a near term rally.

 Even Gold in Euro seems to suffer from some upcoming Euro strength.

The GLD shows some promise but needs to do more work to support the BULL case.

 Timing seems supportive.

 Spyder, XLB, EWZ all tell the same story of a nice correction that has NOT turned into a BEAR !

 The medium term SPY picture looks bearish !!

 Oil might take a break into MAY.

 The VIX ETF portrays the flipside of the SPY, XLB.

Bottom Line:
Don't expect too much bearish action in the next 2-3 weeks. Wait for May before you sell....