The Reflation Trade shows first cracks....

Now that Heli Ben has officially called the end of the recession nothing can go wrong anymore.

Ask yourself, what could inflict the max. pain to most Market participants?
Answer: You know the answer (at least when you're a regular reader).....

Now let's have a quick look at the status of the Risk Trade or should I better say the "Melt up". Final moves can go parabolic but never have an happy ending because they go too far, too deep, too long and usually have sucked too many sheeps in who at some point all look for the same crowded exit.



Equities and High Grade Credit and FX Carry (short $, Yen + long High Yielding FX) are all still in sync.

VIX, short term Credit (! refinancing of the Banks!!) and recent ultrahot High Yield have already used the backdoor. All 3 have to com back to see a continuation of the Party.....now that the recession is over.....